Risk Management in Islamic Banking by tariqullah Khan
P
RISK MANAGEMENT IN ISLAMIC
BANKING
A conceptual framework
Tariqullah Khan
Distance Learning Lecture
2/11/2004
Tariqullah Khan is associated with the Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), the
Islamic Development Bank (IDB). Views expressed in the lecture are his own and do not
necessarily reflect those of IRTI-IDB and member countries.
Running order
Part 2 Part 3
Part 1
Presentation 20 Minutes Presentation 20 Minutes
Presentation 20 Minutes
Questions Questions
Questions
DLCs 2-3 Minutes each DLCs 2-3 Minutes each
DLCs 2-3 Minutes each
Karachi Islamabad
Tehran
Lboro Lboro
Karachi
Islamabad Tehran
Lboro
Tehran Karachi
Islamabad
Answers 10 Minutes Answers 10 Minutes
Answers 10 Minutes
TOTAL 40 Minutes TOTAL 40 Minutes
TOTAL 40 Minutes
Main References
• Chapra, M. Umer & Khan, Tariqullah (2000),
Regulation and Supervision of Islamic Bank, Jeddah:
RTI
http://www.sbp.org.pk/departments/ibd/Regulation_Supe
rvision.pdf
• Khan, Tariqullah and Habib Ahmed (2001), Risk
Management: An Analysis of Issues in Islamic
Financial Industry, Jeddah: IRTI
http://www.sbp.org.pk/departments/ibd/Risk_Manageme
nt.pdf
Presentation outline
• Part – 1: Discusses the systemic
framework of the balance sheet of an
Islamic bank and its risks and soundness
considerations;
• Part – 2: Deals with the unique risks of
Islamic modes of finance and the
perception of the industry in this regard,
and
• Part – 3: Explores the possibility of
developing an internal risk rating system
for Islamic modes of finance.
PART I
SYSTEMIC FRAMEWORK
Risks and risk factors
• Risk shall be seen as the probable loss of
income and assets’ value. Only unexpected
losses are included and expected losses are not
included in the definition of risk.
• The sources of the possibility of future losses can
be classified into:
– Financial
– Business
– Operational
We will return to these in part – 2 of
the lecture
Banking is about intermediation of
short-term risks
Linkages with other balance sheets Linkages with other balance sheets
Depositors
Asset side
risks
BANK CAPITAL
Funding Counter-
side risks
parties
Contingent claims
Key parties and their considerations
1. Depositors: May withdraw;
2. Banks: Tend to accumulate assets to maximize
return on equity;
3. Counter-parties: May default;
4. Regulators: Seek banking soundness;
5. Other companies and households within the
interlinked balance sheets, have contingent claims
on each other and
6. Public/tax payers: Faces the cost of deposit
protection and financial crisis.
To establish banks that are Shari’ah
compliant, enjoy depositors’ confidence,
and are efficient and stable!
Sources of funds
ISLAMIC BANKS TRADITIONAL BANKS
Tier – 1 Capital (equity) Tier – 1 Capital (equity)
Tier – 2 Capital (?) Tier – 2 Capital (Subordinated
loans)
Current accounts Current accounts
Saving accounts Interest-based Saving accounts
Unrestricted Profit Sharing Time & certificates of deposits
Investment Accounts (PSIAs)
Profit equalization reserves Reserves
(PER)
Investment risk reserve (IRR)
…. Sources of funds
ISLAMIC BANK TRADITIONAL BANK
Current accounts Current accounts
Banks in both cases use shareholders’ equity to protect
these deposits
Profit sharing investment Time deposits, certificates
accounts (PSIA) of deposits, etc – fixed
Shareholders’ equity protects income liabilities
these liabilities only in case of Shareholders’ equity and
fiduciary risks (theory); Profit subordinated loans
Equalization Reserve (PER) & protect these liabilities
Investment Risk Reserve (IRR) against all risks
Cost of funds: Variable Cost of funds: Fixed
Uses of Funds
ISLAMIC BANKS TRADITIONAL BANKS
Cash & balances with other Cash & balances with other
banks banks
Sales Receivables Loans
(Murabaha, Salam, Istisna’a) Mortgages
Investment securities Financial leases
Musharaka financing Investment in real estate
Mudaraba financing Securities
Investment in real estate
Investment in leased asset
Inventories (including goods
for Murabaha)
Sustaining losses
Frequency of losses
Unexpected losses from
Credit, market &
Operational risks
Size of losses
Income Capital Insurance
Ensuring the stability of an
Islamic bank
Frequency of losses
Unexpected losses from PSIA financed assets
Unexpected losses from current account
and capital financed assets
Size of losses
Provisions PSIA, Capital
from Income Capital & Takaful
PER & IRR
Risks of PSIA financed assets
Risks Risk Mitigation
Displaced commercial Profit equalization
risk (withdrawal risk) reserve (PER) from
shareholders’
contributions
Fiduciary risk Capital (%?)
Commercial loss PSIA-holder,
Investment risk reserve
(IRR) from PSIA-
holders’ contribution
Risks of PSIA financed assets:
Emerging rules
• Rule – 1: Completely separate the PSIA financed
assets from all other assets financed by current
accounts and capital
• Rule – 2: Allocate risks between PSIA holders and
shareholders, e.g., Regulatory capital for PSIA
financed assets = capital/50% of PSIA financed
assets
• Rule – 3: Apply Basel risk weighting rules
• Rule – 4: Establish IRR and PER
Unique systemic risks
• Risk transmission between current accounts
and investment accounts (between Qard and
Qirad)
• Income mixing between Shari’ah compliant
and non-complaint sources
Need for separate capital as
firewall
Role of capital: Once again!
Capital
Leverage Ratio
Total Assets
• In the two-tier Mudharabah Model this ratio is 1
• People are doing business with their own money
• Only 100% loss of asset value will wipe out equity
….. Hence, under this model
banking instability is not a concern.
Consider ….
Bank capital = $ 10
Assets = $ 100
Capital/Asset Ratio is 1: 10
$ 1 of equity is bearing the risks of $10 of
assets;
Only 10% loss of asset value will wipe-out
all equity
… consider
Bank Capital is $ 10
Asset are $ 100
Connected lending – funds allocated to
owners’ interest groups are $ 20
How much is actual capital?
$ 10,
$ - 10 or
$ - 20?
….. Consider
Bank Capital is $ 10
Assets are $ 100
$40 are concentrated on a single client, in a
single line of business, and
the client’s credit rating has been
downgraded
How sound is the Bank?
These and numerous other considerations that effect
the quality of assets require risk weighting of assets
Risk weighted assets: A measure of
banking soundness
Credit Operational
Market
Standardized risk weighting for all banks
Banks’ own internal risk rating systems
The Basel II Pillars of a
sound banking system
Pilla Pilla Pilla
r1 r2 r3
Minimum Transparency
Capital Effective
and
Requirement Supervision
disclosures
PART II
UNIQUE RISKS OF ISLAMIC BANKS
Risk factors
Financial
Business
Operational
Financial risk factors
• Credit risk
– Default risk
– Down grade risk
– Counter party risk
– Settlement risk
• Market risk
– Price risk
– Rate of return risk
– Exchange rate risk
• Liquidity risk
– Funding liquidity risk
– Asset liquidity risk
– Cash management risk
Business risk
factors
• Management Risk
– Planning
– Organization
– Reporting
– Monitoring
• Strategic Risk
– Research and development
– Product design
– Market dynamics
– Economic
– Reputation
Operational risk
factors
• People risk • External risk
– Relationships – Event
– Ethics – Client
– Processes risk – Security
• Legal risk – Supervisory
– Compliance – Systems
– Control • Equity
• System risk investment
– Hardware risk?
– Software
– Models
– ICT
Islamic modes of finance:
Unique risk factors
• Liquidity originated market risk
• Transformation of credit risk to market
risk and market risk to credit risk at
various stages of a contract
• Bundling of credit risk and market risk
• Market risk arising from owning the
underlying non-financial asset until
maturity of a contract or until the
ownership is transferred to customer
• Treatment of default
Unique balance sheet
features of IBs from market
risk perspective …1
• In traditional banks, market risk is mostly in
the trading book
• In Islamic banks, market risk is
concentrated in the banking book due to
Murabahah, Ijara, Salam, Musharakah and
Mudharabah in the banking book asset
portfolio
• Hence it is unique for Islamic banks that
market risk and credit risk are strongly
bundled together
Unique balance sheet features
of IBs from market risk
perspective …… 2
These are re-price- These are not re-price-
Liabilities Assets
Capital 10 Murabahah 70
Istisna 10
PSIAs 50 Ijarah 10
able
able
Current 40 Salam 4
accounts Musharakah 3
Mudharabah 3
Total 100 100
Banking book market risk in IBs
Assumption: 1 % increase in
benchmark price
IB 1 IB 2 IB 3
L A L A L A
Re-price-able 10 10 10 4 5 5
Non-re-price- 0 0 0 6 5 5
able
Balance Sheet .10 .10 .10 -.02 0 0
value change
Asset value 0 -.12 0
change
Banking book market risk in IBs
Assumption: 1 % decrease in
benchmark price
IB 1 IB 2 IB 3
L A L A L A
Re-price-able 10 10 10 4 5 5
Non-re-price- 0 0 0 6 5 5
able
Balance Sheet .10 .10 -.10 .02 0 0
value change
Asset value 0 .12 0
change
Credit (default) risk
• An unexpected loss in a bank’s income due
to delay in repayment or non-repayment in
full by the client as contractually agreed
• Default risk covers over 80% of risks in an
average bank’s banking book asset portfolio
• It is the cause of over 80% cases of bank
failures
• Default risk, also causes market risk and
liquidity risk
Unique credit risk features of IBs ….1
• Treatment of default: In Islam, compensation-
based restructuring of credit is the most well
known form of Riba, namely, Riba Al Jahiliyah –
this highly necessitates credit risk management
• Moral issues in loan loss reserves
• Collateral quality (restrictions on use of
sovereign bonds)
• Insurance – clients’ insurance and facilities
insurance
• Diverse modes and bundled risks
Unique credit risks of IBs…. 2
• Mudharabah / Musharakah
– Default event undefined
– Collateral not allowed
• Salam / Istisna’
– Counterparty performance risk
– Separation of market risk from default risk
difficult
– Catastrophic risk high
• Murabahah
– Baseline default risk, but counterparty risk
due to embedded option (Murabahah,
binding non-binding matter) also exists
• Conglomeration of risks – each mode having
various risks, credit, liquidity, market, reputation,
Perception of Islamic banking
industry about risks
The research asked Islamic banks to rank
the Islamic modes of finance used by them
from 1 (least severe) to 5 (most severe) in
terms of risks.
Responses of 15 Major Islamic banks are
included.
Outlier responses are not included.
Based on, Tariqullah Khan and Habib Ahmed (2001), Risk
Management: An Analysis of Issues in Islamic Financial
Industry, Jeddah: IRTI
Industry averages
3.1
3
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
credit risk market risk liquidity risk operational risk
m
ur
ab 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7
ah
m ah
ud
ar
ab
m ah
us
ha
ra
ka
h
ija
ra
is
tis
na
Credit risk
D sa
m la
us m
ha
ra
ka
h
m
ur
ab 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7
ah
m ah
ud
ar
ab
m ah
us
ha
ra
ka
h
ija
ra
h
is
tis
na
Market risk
D. sa
m la
us m
h ar
ak
ah
Liquidity risk
3.4
3.2
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
ah ah ah r a na a m a h
a h
ra
b
ra
k ija ti s
s al r a k
a b a a is a
ur ud u sh
us
h
m m m .m
D
m
ur 3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
ab
ah 2.5
m ah
ud
ar
ab
m ah
us
ha
ra
ka
h
ija
ra
h
is
tis
na
D. sa
m la
Operational risk
us m
h ar
a ka
h
Severity of risks
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
ah ab ah ra na ' m ka
h
m ah ra ija tis la
ur k sa ar
ab m m is a
ud us m
ah ha ha us
r h
D.
credit risk market risk liquidity risk operational risk
Part III – EXPLORING AN INTERNAL
RATING SYSTEM FOR ISLAMIC
MODES OF FINANCE
Need for broader look
Mode of Obligor Business line - 1 Business line - 2
finance < 1 year 1- 2 2 -3 <1 1- 2 2 -3
years years year years years
Murabahah AAA
BBB
CCC
Musharakah AAA
BBB
CCC
Istisna’ AAA
BBB
CCC
Ijara AAA
BBB
CCC
Islamic banks’ risks: Unique versus shared with
100
traditional banks
90
80
70
60
50
unique 40
30
20
shared 10
0
ri s ks ri s ri s is ks
ks ct
ks et ks ks ris ur
ris at es
cr liq ne io bu st
ed ar ui ss na nd ru
it k di bu lr le
m ty si d infra
op
er
Challenge: How to capture the unique
risks of IBs?
• The answer is to develop Internal Rating
Systems (IRSs) in IBs
• IRSs can be considered as risk-based
inventories of individual assets of banks either
based on the loss given default (LGD) of the
facility or probability of default (PD) of the obligor
or both
• Most IRSs are JUDGMENTAL NOT
STATISTICAL
• Rationale for IRSs
Uses of IRSs
• IRSs differ from bank to bank, from use to use
• IRSs are used for a number of purposes:
– guiding credit origination process,
– portfolio monitoring and management
reporting
– Analysis of adequacy of loan loss reserves
and capital
– Profitability and loan pricing analysis
– Input to formal mathematical modes of risk
management
– Facilitate prudential bank supervision
Desirability of IRSs for IBs
• To capture the diverse nature of the Islamic
modes of finance
• Internal ratings are based on the profile of
individual assets, not on a bucket of assets
• Internal ratings help the development of
systematic database of critical financial
variables
• Internal ratings supplement external credit
assessment
• Internal ratings can enhance external ratings
• Internal ratings improve quality of MISs
……desirability of IRSs
• Formal internal ratings are normally used by
large and sophisticated banks
• The size of most Islamic banks is very small
and therefore, their capacity to develop internal
rating systems is limited in general
• For a long time, this method cannot be utilized
for supervisory assessment of individual
Islamic banks’ risks
• However, initiation of IRS is imperative to
develop risk management culture consistent
with the Islamic modes of finance
Sources and inputs of IRSs
• Client oriented system - probability of
default (PD)
• Facility oriented system - value of an asset
expected to be lost in the event of a default
(loss given a default: LGD)
• In both cases: balance sheet value of total
asset i.e., Exposure-at- Default (EAD)
• Maturity of facility
• Concentration of credit to the specific client
as a percentage of total portfolio, etc.
PDs: Starting point in building
IRSs
In the framework of Basel II, with the approval of
supervisors, banks can use their own internal
assessments of their asset risk components for
meeting regulatory capital requirements.
Asset risk components: Probability of default
(PD), loss given default (LGD), exposure at
default (EAD), and effective maturity of facility
(MOF)
Foundation internal ratings based (IRB) approach
– Banks use their own PDs; supervisors assign
LGDs, EADs, and MOFs
Advanced IRB approach – banks can use their
own PDs, LGDs, EADs, and MOFs
Building judgmental default
probabilities
• Analysis of financial statements of the
client to assess its future cash flow and its
ability to meet its contractual obligations
– Debt service capacity of the client
– Liquidity of the clients’ balance sheet
– Historical earnings
– Access to sources of funds
– Leverage ratio etc
• Peer group analysis
• Audit reports
• External credit assessment reports etc
Internal capital allocation: An
Example
Survey results regarding risk perceptions
Rank 1 (not serious) to 5 (critically serious)
• Musharakah 3.69
• Diminishing Musharakah 3.33
• Mudarabah 3.25
• Salam 3.20
• Istisna ‘ 3.13
• Ijarah 2.64
• Murabahah 2.56
…. Internal allocation of capital: An Example
Modes of Risk Weight (w), Capital
finance perception Index needs $
1 to 5 % of 5 Murabahah=100
Musharakah 3.69 73.8 144; w=1.44 288
D. 3.33 66.6 130; w=1.30 260
Musharakah
Mudharabah 3.25 65 127; w=1.27 254
Salam 3.2 64 125; w=1.25 250
Istisna 3.13 62.6 122; w=1.22 244
Ijara 2.64 52.8 102; w=1.02 204
Murabahah 2.56 51.2 100; w=1 200
Assumptions: Commitment (C) = $10,000; EAD = 50% (of C); LGD = 50% (of
EAD); Minimum capital requirement = 8%; Weight (w) base = 100; Actual
capital requirement = C*EAD*LGD*W*8%
C commitment, EAD exposure at default, LGD loss given default
Conclusion
• Asset side and liability side unique features of
Islamic banks can strengthen linkages between
financial and real sectors and enhance financial
stability;
• The unique balance sheet features of Islamic
banks however, also give rise to significant
unique risks;
• The proper management of these risks can
strengthen the Islamic banking industry’s role in
financing development and enhancing financial
markets’ efficiency and stability
….. Conclusion
• The existing standards which are meant for
traditional banks need to be complemented
with standards covering the unique risks of
Islamic banks
• The challenging role is being played by the
Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB)
• Internal Rating Systems are most suitable
for Islamic Banks
Thank You
Tariqullah.khan@isdb.org
Tel: 966 2 6466370
Fax: 966 2 6378927
Tariqullah Khan (Ph.D), is currently Senior Economist at IRTI, the Islamic
Development Bank. He is also member of the Risk Management Working Group
of the Islamic Financial Services Board, Kuala Lumpur. Before joining IRTI in
1983, he held faculty positions in Universities in Pakistan since 1976.
He holds M.A. (Economics) degree from the University of Karachi, Pakistan, and
a Ph.D. degree from the Loughborough University, United Kingdom.
At IRTI, he undertakes, manages and supervises research studies, conferences
and other academic programs and policy initiatives. His current areas of interest
are Islamic financial products and markets, risk management, regulation and
supervision and financial stability.
He has several publications and has presented numerous conference papers
and presentations in these areas. Some of his recent publications include, Risk
Management: An Analysis of Issues in the Islamic Financial Industry, Occasional
Paper # 5, Jeddah: IRTI (2001) co-authored; “Financing Build, Operate and
Transfer Projects: The Case of Islamic Financial Instruments”, Islamic Economic
Studies, (2002); "Pricing of an Islamic convertible mortgage for infrastructure
project financing" International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, Vol 5
No 7 (2002) co-authored; and "Modeling an exit strategy for Islamic venture
capital finance" in International Journal of Islamic Financial Services, Vol 3 No 2
(2002) co-authored; Financing Public Expenditure: An Islamic Perspective (2004)
co-authored.
His forthcoming publications include: Islamic Banking: Risk Management,
Regulation and Supervision, co-edited; and Islamic Financial Engineering co-
edited.
